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Water GenbuTier 2
at Grand Canyon DTR Store Championsip
decks
3
(9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
5-6-2
overall winrate
46.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
32.2%
avg ELO -7.4 per match
expected value
48.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1387
· median 1364
· range 1281–1516
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1223
Q3 1374
1730
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 12.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.9% | -6.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.7% | +5.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.5% | -24.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
